Experiment-calibrated MMM

실험 보정 MMM

Use lift evidence to calibrate an MMM channel-effect estimate.

···
html
<div class="cal"><div class="head">CHANNEL ROI ESTIMATE <b id="state">BEFORE</b></div><div class="axis"><div class="range" id="range"><i></i><span>UNCERTAINTY</span></div><div class="tick">0</div><div class="tick">1</div><div class="tick">2</div><div class="tick">3</div></div><div class="input" id="input">GEO EXPERIMENT → MODEL</div></div>
css
.cal{width:min(86%,590px);font:850 clamp(10px,max(2vmin,1vw),14px)/1.2 sans-serif}.head{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;border-bottom:2px solid var(--fg);padding-bottom:8px}.head b{color:var(--accent)}.axis{position:relative;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:flex-end;height:clamp(75px,20vmin,150px);border-bottom:2px solid var(--fg);color:var(--muted)}.range{position:absolute;left:15%;width:72%;height:clamp(32px,8vmin,65px);top:20%;background:color-mix(in srgb,var(--accent) 22%,transparent);border-left:3px solid var(--accent);border-right:3px solid var(--accent);display:grid;place-items:center;transition:left .65s,width .65s}.range i{position:absolute;left:50%;height:135%;top:-17%;border-left:3px solid var(--fg)}.range span{font-size:clamp(10px,max(1.5vmin,1vw),12px);color:var(--fg);background:var(--surface);padding:3px}.tick{font-size:clamp(10px,max(1.6vmin,1vw),12px);padding-bottom:5px}.input{margin-top:clamp(14px,3vmin,24px);padding:clamp(8px,2vmin,14px);text-align:center;border:1px solid var(--fg);color:var(--fg);transition:background .5s,color .5s}.input.on{background:var(--fg);color:var(--bg)}
js
let calibrated=false;function draw(){document.querySelector('#state').textContent=calibrated?'CALIBRATED':'BEFORE';const r=document.querySelector('#range');r.style.left=calibrated?'39%':'15%';r.style.width=calibrated?'27%':'72%';document.querySelector('#input').classList.toggle('on',calibrated)}draw();setInterval(()=>{calibrated=!calibrated;draw()},1800);

Experiment-calibrated MMM uses causal lift evidence, such as a geo experiment, as prior information for the model. This can ground channel estimates that aggregate observational data alone cannot identify well.

In the demo, a lift result enters the model and its illustrative estimate range narrows. This is a possible visual outcome, not a guarantee of calibration.

A test with different audiences, periods, or outcome definitions may impose the wrong constraint. Check experiment quality and transferability first.

When to use

Use it before major MMM budget decisions to ground estimates in experiment evidence.

Open as page ↗